Thursday, February 11, 2021

The bubble of cannabis on the stock market bursts

From the highs reached in September last year, sector stocks have lost an average of 66% of
their value but now the stock market multiples have returned to a physiological level.

The bet on the legal cannabis business has been one of the big news of these years. 

The liberalization (both therapeutic and recreational) decided in recent years by several states in the US and then the full legalization decided at the end of last year by Canada has pushed large and small investors around the world to bet on the so-called "cannastocks" ”, The listed companies operating in the legal cannabis sector that in recent years have been listed on the stock exchange.

The boom...
The problem is that cannabis mania has turned out to be a speculative bubble, which has grown dramatically throughout 2018 with triple-digit gains in view of the legalization launched by Canada last year, and exploded after the decision was made official. In other words, what the investors specialized in jargon define as “buy the rumor sell the news” (buy on rumors and sell when the news is official) has occurred. That is, the market bought on the wave of the euphoria of legalization and then clearly reversed the course when the "market mover" materialized.

... and the sboom
The problem is that, being a speculative bubble, the turnaround put in place by the market was sudden and very painful. From the highs reached on 19 September 2018, the "cannastocks" index that Il Sole 24Ore compiled using the market prices of the 50 largest companies in the sector lost more than 66 percent. In terms of capitalization, almost 30 billion dollars of capitalization have gone up in smoke (it should be said). There are stocks, such as Tilray (a Canadian medical cannabis company listed on the Nasdaq) that capitalized nearly $ 20 billion in September last year and, after the stock lost more than 90%, are now worth just over two. Another well-known title, that of Canadian Aurora Cannabis, has gone from worth over eight billion dollars to the current 2.7.

The weight of retail savers
Although in the shareholding of large cannabis companies there is no lack of large institutional investors, it is also true that the holdings of these subjects are not significant in percentage terms. Those who invest in these stocks are mainly private citizens, an investor base that tends to be more humoral with the effect of making the stock more volatile. Unlike a large fund that can afford to hold a stake for a long time even when it loses retail, when they see things are going badly, they sell with the risk of fueling the classic herd effect.

Stock market multiples
The reversal that has been seen in the last year has in any case contributed to bringing the prices of a sector that was dealing with out-of-market valuations back to normal. At the height of the crisis, the “cannastocks” were worth more than 10 times their assets and 64 times their revenues. Today these multiples have stabilized at 1.87 and 8.5 times, respectively. These are premium numbers compared to the rest of the market, as it should be for a rapidly growing sector, but at more reasonable levels than in the past. Almost all of the listed companies operating in the cannabis market that have sprung up in recent years are at a loss, as is normal for a relatively new business like cannabis. But the revenue growth rate is around 250% in the case of the 5 largest stocks and the forecasts for the future of both companies and industry analysts are more than promising.

Leading investors around the world all agree the Cannabis Craze is officially the biggest boom since Bitcoin. Since Canada has officially legalized marijuana, profits for weed stocks have been EXPLODING with profits expected to soar as high as big, “expensive” stocks like Google, Apple and Facebook. 

Making right now the very last chance “little guys” like you and I have to rake in big profits from marijuana penny stocks.

Leading investors around the world all agree the Cannabis Craze is officially the biggest boom since Bitcoin so invest TODAY.

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